COURSE
NUMBER: MBA 240-11B
This course is cross-listed with the EWMBA Program
IMPORTANT
NOTE #1: This course will have a take-home final exam
on Sunday, May 9, 11:00 AM - 5:00 PM. If you are unable to take the exam both
on this data and at this time, do NOT enroll in this course. Although you must
take the exam on May 9, the exam will be distributed and returned
electronically, so you may take the exam from anywhere in the world from which
you can access e-mail or bSpace.
IMPORTANT
NOTE #2: This course requires use of a laptop during
the two Sunday classes. If you cannot bring a laptop to class (or at least sit
next to someone who does bring a laptop), do NOT enroll in this course.
COURSE
TITLE: Risk Management via Optimization and
Simulation
UNITS
OF CREDIT: 1 Unit
INSTRUCTOR: Andy Shogan
E-MAIL
ADDRESS: andy@haas.berkeley.edu
CLASS
WEB-PAGE LOCATION: bSpace
MEETING
DAY(S)/TIME: Sunday, March 7 & April 11, 9:00 AM -
5:00 PM
PREREQUISITE(S): Core courses from Fall A
& B and Spring A (or consent of instructor)
CLASS
FORMAT: This will be a lecture-based course.
REQUIRED
READINGS: There is a textbook.
BASIS
FOR FINAL GRADE: 2 Personal Problem Sets (10%), 2 Team
Assignments (40%), Take-home Final Exam (50%)
ABSTRACT
OF COURSE'S CONTENT AND OBJECTIVES:
VIDEO
This course surveys how to formulate,
solve, and interpret mathematical models that assist a manager in his/her
decision making. I use the word assist because a model does not make a decision
for a manager. Before making a final decision, a manager must combine his/her
own experience and instincts with the information and insights provided by a
model. I emphasize decision models that are widely used in diverse businesses
and industries, models with which all successful managers should be familiar.
The courses primary goals are twofold: to make all students intelligent
consumers of decision models developed by others, and to motivate many students
to be suppliers of decision models to their colleagues at work. Until recently,
decision models were for experts only. However, given the past decades advances
in computer hardware/software and in data collection/storage/retrieval, today's
managers can quickly and inexpensively perform on their desktops what once
required significant investments of time, space, and dollars. Therefore, an
important aspect of this course is the association with each major topic of a
piece of software that you own, learn, and apply during the course (and
hopefully afterwards!).
Below is a summary of the courses two
major topics and the associated software.
SUNDAY,
MARCH 7
OPTIMIZATION USING EXCEL's SOLVER
Topics
covered include:
·
What is a Linear
Program, and what is an Integer Linear Program?
·
Applications of
linear programming and integer linear programming to production and operations
management and to financial management.
·
How to use Excels
built-in Solver to solve a linear program or an integer linear program. (That
is, although spreadsheet software such as Excel was designed initially to
answer the question "What if?", Solver
allows us to answer the question "What's best?".)
SUNDAY, APRIL 11
SIMULATION & RISK MANAGEMENT USING CRYSTAL BALL.
Topics covered include:
·
Why managers
should confront uncertainties instead of ignoring them.
·
How a manager can
get into trouble by not understanding the Flaw of Averages. (That is, the mean
of a function of random variables does not in general equal the function of the
means of the random variables.)
·
The world is not
always Normal! (That is, in addition to the Normal Probability Distribution,
there are other probability distributions with which a manager should be
familiar.)
·
What is a
Simulation?
·
How Crystal Ball,
an add-in to Excel, can be used to conduct a simulation within a spreadsheet.
·
What is risk, and
how can it be measured and managed?
·
The trade-off
between return and risk. (For example, the best decision might not be the
decision that maximizes profit but instead might be a decision that has a
lower-than-maximum profit but a significantly lower downside risk.)
·
Applications of
simulation to production management, developing a "business plan" for
a new product, obtaining portfolio insurance via a put option, adding
"leverage" to a portfolio via a call option, yield management in the
airline and hotel industries, and Value-at-Risk.
BIOGRAPHICAL
SKETCH:
ANDREW W. SHOGAN is on the faculty of the Haas School's Operations and
Information Technology Group. During the
years 1991-2007, Andy served as the Haas School’s Associate Dean for
Instruction. Andy joined the Haas
School’s faculty in 1974 after receiving an A.B. in Mathematics from Princeton
and a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Stanford. Andy has twice received the Haas School’s
Cheit Award for Teaching Excellence -- once from the MBA students and once from
the EvMBA students -- and he has received the Distinguished Teaching Award from
the University's faculty. Andy has
designed and taught a variety of executive education programs for companies in
the United States, China, Thailand, Taiwan, Jamaica, Mexico, and Switzerland.